Iran is certainly a greater threat to regional stability and the U.S. than Iraq was. However, there are several reasons Bush will not engage that country militarily, unless legitimately provoked (e.g. an attack on a U.S. base).
The U.S. is not able to fight a two-front war with Iraq and Iran. Iraq is already more than we can handle. Unfortunately, Ahmadinejad realizes this and knows he has significant room to push back against our diplomacy and our threats. The only way we could engage them is to enlist a multinational force, but in the absence of widespread serious condemnation of Iran (and, for that matter, widespread support of U.S. policy) that force would be hard to come by.
There may be enough of a movement within Iran to rule out military force. In other words, change may be possible from within. Many Iranians reject extreme Islamist culture, such as Sharia, in favor of a more Western, liberal lifestyle. Furthermore, a large percentage of Iranians have no interest in the nuclear ambitions of the president and are uncomfortable with the ire that has been directed at their country.
Diplomacy is the best course ahead of us, but we should not be afraid to flex our muscles.
Friday, February 2, 2007
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